The economic case against independence is infected by old thinking.
It has long been assumed, largely without challenge, that Wales is simply too small, too weak and too poor to make its own way in the world.
It follows from this attitude that we are doomed to eke out a living, subsisting and dependent on Westminster subsidies and being told what to do by the London establishment is an intrinsic part of the bargain.
The price of being a perceived subsidy baby is obedience.
Therefore for the most part we do not get to decide our own taxes or our own economic policy. We do not get to decide how swathes of our economy is regulated or how the benefits system operates. We are not in control.
Want taxes to be fairer? Tough. Want the benefits system to be less punitive? Ditto.
Independence
This state of affairs suits the Westminster establishment just fine. Indeed, it works hard to keep it this way. Its minions proactively tell us in Wales that we will never make it on our own. This message has been rammed down our throats for generations.
What they essentially argue is that as a country we would not be able to afford to pay our bills if we were to become independent.
A favourite trick of the establishment to back this up is to point to the deficit.
Now, the deficit is the difference between how much money brings in through taxation and other means, and the money it spends, on things such as public services.
According to previous figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) the deficit Wales would incur on day one of independence would stand at £13.5 billion.
However groundbreaking research by Professor John Doyle of Dublin City University strongly suggests that figure is highly misleading.
He concluded the fiscal gap – the difference between raised revenue and government expenditure – would actually be closer to £2.6bn.
Dr John Ball former lecturer of economics at Swansea University would argue the difference between expenditure and revenue would be even smaller.
Taxation
Prof Dyle bases this on the 2019 estimate of total Welsh economic output standing at £77.5bn. This means the deficit would be equivalent to just under 3.4% of GDP, which is a perfectly sustainable figure for a nation-state to manage.
It compares with an average fiscal deficit of 3.2% across all OECD countries in 2019.
To put this in context, the figure is also lower than the UK’s deficit in the financial year 2023/24, which stood at £121bn and is equivalent to 4.4% of GDP.
Yet nobody argues that the UK is too poor to be independent and should therefore be ruled from Paris or Berlin.
For decades Westminster has hidden how much money Wales really has through misleading accounting practices
When it comes to taxation, Prof Doyle argues some of Wales’ tax receipts, such as for corporation tax may be underestimated.
This is because many companies operating in Wales are headquartered outside the country. The money these companies make in Wales isn’t necessarily reported in Wales.
He also suggests an independent Wales could also make savings in a number of areas. One area where Wales could spend much less is on defence.
Pensions
It is highly unlikely that an independent Wales would continue forking out for the hugely expensive Trident nuclear missile system.
Then there is the issue of pensions. In 2018-19 the UK government spent £5.9bn on pensions in Wales.
While it is true that the pension liability would be a matter of negotiation post-independence, Prof Doyle has argued that it is logical for Wales to insist that the UK government should continue to pay the pensions of people in Wales who have contributed to the public purse in taxes and social insurance contributions.
After all, most people in those circumstances would only be getting back the money they have paid in.
When it comes to the question of whether an independent Wales would take over a share of UK public debt, Wales would not necessarily have any obligation to do so.
On top of all this, Prof Doyle also that the fiscal gap Wales would inherit could be closed by a combination of relatively modest economic growth, and changes to tax policy.
Ambition
The whole point of independence is that we can chart our own course. We can do things our own way. We don’t have to shackle ourselves to the failed economic policies of the past that have decimated our communities and stifled our ambitions.
A viable independent Wales is possible. Not only that, it is highly desirable because it’s the best chance we have of ensuring that our people prosper and flourish.
The Westminster establishment hides our money from us, refuses to properly invest in our communities, and then tells us we’re too broke to be independent.
When Wales frees itself from the false narrative that has been peddled we can write a very different story.
Elfed Williams – YesCymru Director